Outcomes of Missing Weight - UFC
It is nothing new when we hear about missing weight, its a semi-regular event that has become common in MMA. Whether its poor dietary habits with Tiramisu, poor commitment, late notice fights or just changes to the body on a difficult weight cut, fighters miss weight. Over the last 8 years in the UFC, dating back to August 3rd 2013 when John Lineker missed weight by 3lbs over Jose Maria Torne, we took a look at the data of missed weight fights and how it interprets into a fight.
One-hundred and nine fighters have fought overweight since august of 2013 and at first glance seems to be be balanced between wins and losses. Overweight fighters carry a record of fifty-one wins and fity-eight losses. Of the fifty-one who won only twenty-one were noted as underdogs and no underdog with more than a +300 odd was able to turn the table and deliver an upset thanks to the extra weight. The slight underdog however has an increase in success, on average the general underdog wins at an approximate rate of 31.88%. Of our total underdogs who stepped into the cage overweight, 41.2% won their matchups. While this is already significant, it drives even higher if you isolate that in slight underdog matchups carry odds less than +300. Underdogs from even -115 to +300 had fourty-one fights and all twenty-one underdog wins with a winning record of 52.5% of fights. There seems to be really good odds betting on a slight underdog who has missed weight as their chances of winning increases by a significant 60.7% total.
of all missed weight fights 51% ended in decision, 26% in Knockouts and 22% in submissions. When you isolate for the fifty-one wins and fifty-eight losses that statistic shows something interest. Missed weight fighter wins, 49% of those were decision which is underrepresented meaning they’re statistically more likely to lose a decision by slight margins. They also carried an underrepresented percentage of submissions at 18%, but the most curious number is the over represented KOs in this group, with 31% of all wins coming by KO, meaning the Overweight fighters are slightly less likely to win by sub or decision and more notably, have an increase to knockouts.
The inverse is true for the 58% of losses by fighters who missed weight, while they win most decisions and carry more submissions by subtle margins (53%, 26%) they also carry a decrease in total knockouts against them (21%). The cost of not cutting more weight seems to have given them a slightly better durability and as we know, dehydration is linked to possible increase in TBIs as we talked about in our ‘Mouthguards in MMA’ article.
All in all it seems there isn’t a significant advantage when missing weight, tho a slight underdog may benefit drastically, the effect is nominal for those outside of that category. The hydration may protect a fighter from being KOd but also runs the risk of exhaustion from extra weight as noted in the slight decrease in overall decision wins. Let us know what you think about fighters who miss weight and if you think we missed anything.
